NFL Week 7 Early ATS Picks and Predictions
The Chiefs come Around Mile High on Thursday to take on the Denver Broncos.
Kansas City, having a record of 4-2 and an ATS record of 3-3, encounter this only after two losses to conference opponents. The Broncos on the other hand, are currently driving high and coming off two straight wins. The Broncos are ATS so far this year, and sit 2-4. Denver linebacker Bradley Chubbs loss may have really galvanized this team. Head coach Vic Fangio finally has a hold with this Denver defense which is now rated the #7 shield in the league according to my defensive power ratings (via SparkSports.ca).
In terms of the Chiefs, their shield has seen. Kansas Citys defense has allowed an average of 406.2 metres per game and 24 points against per game. I have them rated as the 19 shield in the league. The Chiefs defensive battles are not their problem as well, the Chiefs offense has struggled to become anything greater than vanilla in their last games. The defensive line of kansas City has not been able to shield Patrick Mahomes properly, and because of that – were seeing a great deal of back and off balance cries foot efforts. The Chiefs offense might have come back down to earth after an entire period of being viewed as the soccer equivalent. It appears now, they are now the Houston Rockets.
The overall consensus among those who set out NFL power ratings have the Chiefs as about 3pts greater compared to the Broncos on the road. Based on my statistics, my defensive ability evaluations possess the Broncos as 9pts greater than the Chiefs in the home. I believe this game can be won by Denver. This line opened as Denver +4.5 and cash has come in on the Broncos and has since moved it to Broncos +3. I wish I was able to get on that +4.5 or +4 or even +3.5, however I missed the ship. I jumped +3 while I had the opportunity, believing that cash would continue to come in on Denver. That hasnt been the case. As a reader, even if you can hold off to the Broncos +3 and track that line movement. I would jump on Denver +3.5 whenever you see purchase back come in about the Chiefs. Either way, I really like the Broncos here.
Current Line: Denver +3 (-107 via Pinnacle)
Eyeing: Denver +3.5 (-110)
Bet: Denver +3 (-110 via Bet365)
1pm EST, Sunday October 20th
Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, Indiana
The Houston Texans and the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday see in Lucas Oil Field. The Texans come to this one with a 4-2 record, along with the exact same ATS record of 4-2. The Colts are 3-2 with an ATS set of 3-1-1. Deshaun Watson has performed quite well in his first six matches of the year. Watson has a completion percentage of 69.7%, throwing for 1644 yards, together with 12 touchdowns and 3 interceptions.
The Colts Jacoby Brissett has also played well, as the Colts are still proceed from the surprise retirement of Andrew Luck. Jacoby Brissett includes a completion percentage of 64.7percent, but hes pitched for 1062 yards with 10 touchdowns and three interceptions. The Colts offensive line has been the highlight of the season – their defenses performance will be what makes or breaks them within this game.
Houston QB Deshaun Watson has got the most amount of sacks in the NFL since coming to the league, when he is sacked – that the Texans lose, when he remains on his feet – . Its that easy. The Texans offensive line should hold the Colts defense and then also shield Deshaun Watson. If they can do that, I expect the Texans to win this game . My defensive power evaluations have the Texans as the 15 defense in the league, averaging 22.4 points per match against. Directly under the Texans is that the Colts, who Ive since the #16 defense in the league; allowing 23.1 points per game against.
The general consensus, by the power ratings that are popular possess the Texans as approximately 1pt superior than the Colts in the street. But, according to my numbers – the Colts should be about 2pts superior in the home than the Texans. This line opened at Colts -2.5 and moved as far as Texans -1, and its now swung back into Colts -1. This is one of those plays where I am likely to have to side with all the talking heads, and go against my numbers. I like the Texans here. The break or make deciding element for me will be that, Houston gets the league best red zone scoring portion using 71.43%. Additionally, the Texans lead the team in third down conversion percentage. In terms of the Colts, they rank 30th in red zone percentage and are ranked 27th in competition third down conversion percentage. When it boils down to it, I believe the Texans are going to be able to score when it matters more. Give the most Texans to me.
Current Line: Texans +1 (-104 through Pinnacle)
Bet: Texans pk (-110 via Bet365)
1PM EST, Sunday October 20th
Ford Field
The 4-2 Minnesota Vikings will travel to take to the 2-2-1 Lions on Sunday afternoon. The Vikings encounter this as the only team in the NFL to perform six matches. Whichever team has scored has won the game, in every game theyve played this season. So, the trick to this game to the Vikings would be evident – to come out blazing and start this sport fast. Based on my amounts, Minnesota gets the #6 defense in the league. The Vikings have just permitted 15.5pts per match against and just 310 yards per game against. In terms of Detroit, I have them ranked as the #18 defensive team in the NFL.
The Lions have allowed 23.6 pts per game contrary to, and 413 yards per game against. The popular consensus power ratings place out this week possess the Vikings as about 2.5pts better than Detroit on the road. My personal power ratings gets the difference between these two teams as even broader. Detroit on the Street has not Minnesota as about 5pts than me. This line opened as a choice em and has since moved to Detroit becoming +1.5 underdogs. Together with the Vikings only giving -1.5pts, I think there is a ton of worth on Minnesota here. It will be on my personal card Sunday come.
Current Line: Minnesota -1 (-116 via Pinnacle)
Bet: Minnesota -1 (-110 through Bet365)
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