BIG MARLEY’S UFC FIGHT NIGHT 134 DRAFT KINGS FANTASY BREAKDOWN
This weekend we have an early card on Sunday morning (10:30am ET). I really do like these early cards so that I will wake up and have a DraftKings perspiration and then go out and revel in the rest of the afternoon once the struggles are over. This Sunday’s card will occur in Hamburg, Germany and there are a lot of fighters making their UFC debut. Because of this, I believe we ought to have a large edge this week should we put in the job. Most casual players won’t be doing research on those titles they’ve not heard and will just be throwing in lineups seeking to get lucky and hit a big score. I’ll be chasing the large $15k top prize in the 8 GPP as well as the Qualifiers. The majority of my investment will be in money games, largely H2Hs, but I will be taking multiple shots at those big prizes. Here are a few plays I like this week in Addition to my fade of the week:
Money Game play of this week — Stack (Anthony Smith $8,700 AND Shogun Rua $7,500)
It is a tough card this Sunday and I believe we’ll see a good deal of people making mistakes in cash games. Whenever I believe I can guarantee a complete 100+ points in a struggle, I love to stack it in my money games and lock in those factors. I think this battle will be a fun one and I highly doubt it goes to the scorecards. I think we could see multiple knockdowns as well which can help, but I believe we easily get over 100+ points together with these two men. Let’s let everybody else make the errors and we can lock in a 100+ points and a win, and then we only have to locate another 3 wins we’re convinced in.
GPP drama of the week — Manny Bermudez ($9,200)
I believe that this matchup was set up for Bermudez a win. He has a very slick submission game and if this fight goes to the ground I think he will pick up progress points fast and find a submission. Grant has had problems with submission defense in his profession and even when he’s winning on the toes, he still shoots in for takedowns every fight. I believe if Manny can’t get the takedown himself, Grant will eventually go to it himself and it’ll cost him. I think we could observe a 1st round submission here which should easily get the 10x+ we’re looking for at his $9.2k price tag.
Underdog drama of the week — Shogun Rua ($7,500)
In case Shogun can win this fight he will easily repay this price . He has 100-point upside and with a $7.5k salary that will surely place him on the winning lineup if he can get there. Anthony Smith has been knocked more times than Shogun and has fought much worse competition. I would not be shocked if Shogun can acquire a KO here against Smith, who’s carrying this fight on short notice. Shogun has markedly slowed down in the past few years but I think that he has enough in the tank to pull off an upset victory . I really do want exposure to both men in GPPs, but I believe you want some exposure to Rua if you’re making multiple lineups.
Fade of this week — Nick Hein ($8,500)
I have a number of fades this week and I am going with a bigger player pool in hopes of my picks being correct and that I will hit the ideal combo. It’s hard to pick one favourite fade this week however I shall pick Nick Hein. I really do think Nick Hein will win this battle, and I believe he’ll use takedowns to get the decision win here. So, you would think that sounds good on DraftKings since wrestling racks up points. But, he doesn’t chain together takedowns and he usually ends up with just 1 or two in his UFC wins. He does not have much completing ability and that I don’t see him getting a entry. However, I think we will see 2-3 takedowns here and him grinding his way to a Unanimous Decision victory as we have seen from him in the past. Hein has 4 UFC wins and these are his DraftKings game titles for those wins: 53 points, 58 points, 65 points, and 71 points. At $8.5k, I’m not interested in having any DK investment on Hein with these scores. That is why he is my fade of this week.
If you would like my own full-card DraftKings breakdown using investigation on every struggle, my private approaches & recommendations, and my pick forecast for every struggle then you can realize that under the Premium Picks tab on MMAoddsbreaker should you click on Upcoming Picks. Or you can just go to this link below:
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