UFC 196 Betting Preview
When lightweight winner Rafael dos Anjos pulled out of his second title defense against Connor McGregor 12 days ahead of the show, the UFC had choices galore.
You see, in the same way the featherweight kingpin will inform you, any card headlined by the Dubliner will be a profitable bonanza. The marketing first offered the struggle to Jose Aldo and Frankie Edgar, but answered the call.
Edgar had been dealing with a groin injury that had prevented him from training for the several previous weeks, while Aldo’s trainer said he was not in good enough shape conditioning-wise to take the battle on this short notice.
Former 155-pound champ Anthony Pettis was just one fighter volunteering his services, joining the likes of Urijah Faber and Donald’Cowboy’ Cerrone. Even B.J. Penn wanted a shot at McGregor.
Nate Diaz was also more than willing when contacted from the UFC. Dana White let the rumors to hang in the air for many hours before determining that the interest from fans was best to get a Diaz-McGregor showdown.
McGregor had informed the UFC he would fight anyone on the roster at any given weight. When Diaz’s camp indicated getting down to 155 on brief note was too much, the UFC countered using a catchweight supply of 160 lbs. Diaz countered with 165.
Whenever the UFC known as’The Notorious,’ he said let’s just do it at 170. Therefore, tonight’s key event for UFC 196 at the MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas will be a five-rounder contested at welterweight. McGregor, the 145-pound champ, is moving up two weight classes.
Advertisement Most novels opened McGregor (19-2 MMA, 7-0 UFC) at approximately -300, but the odds are becoming more expensive with every passing day. As of Thursday afternoon, most places had McGregor preferred in the -450 to -500 range. Diaz was approximately +380 about the comeback (risk $100 to win $380).
Now that we’ve arrived at fight day, most places have McGregor in -500 or greater. The best payout for Diaz overseas is in 5Dimes, which includes him +425.
The complete for’over/under’ wagers is 2.5 rounds (-200 to the’under,’ +165′over’). For all those gamblers wanting to shave some of the’chalk’ yet still back McGregor, the prop for him to win inside the distance does not offer you much help (-278 in 5Dimes).
If you want to take McGregor’s advice he’ll dust Diaz from the opening round, that brace provides a +170 yield. If you think the pride of Ireland will make quick work of Diaz, similar to his 13-second demolition of Aldo, there is a brace at 5Dimes the battle won’t go 1:01 that offers a lucrative +550 yield.
For McGregor to win by TKO/KO (in any round), the price is -275 (danger $275 to win $100). We should notice that Diaz has never been completed at the first round in 28 professional spells.
In fact, Diaz (18-10 MMA, 13-8 UFC) has only been finished twice. He was submitted by Hermes Franca at WEC 24 in the second round, and the 209 product suffered his sole career TKO loss to Josh’The Punk’ Thomson in the next round of their April 2013 showdown. (Diaz’s corner threw in the towel)
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