BIG MARLEY’S UFC ON ESPN+ 9 DRAFTKINGS BREAKDOWN
This weekend, we’ve got a 12-fight card at Canada. DraftKings has some solid contests for us to acquire a lot of cash from this week. The main GPP is a $15 buy and $25k belongs to 1st place with a total of 100k being paid out. They also have a brand new Qualifier only contest for $175,000. There will be 100 qualifiers for that contest and they’ll compete for a $50k first place price and that $175k will be spread out between all 100 entries that qualify. I will try to get my 2nd chair this week if possible. Those Qualifier only competitions can be actual bankroll suckers, so be careful chasing those overly hard. I will probably stick to the very best GPP this week and then throw a small number of entries at the $25k decoration, and then I will likely have a couple shots at the Q. I will also be publishing H2Hs as well as picking up H2Hs throughout the week to get a fantastic amount of play into money games.
With that said, let us get into a few plays I enjoy this week Together with my fade of the week:
Cash Game play of this week — Macy Chiasson — $9,400
Macy Chiasson is by far the safest play on the board and she also has 100+ stage upside. She is a lock within my money matches this week and that I don’t really see how she loses. I think a submission would be Moras’ best chance but she isn’t capable of finding the fight to the ground, so that I see her getting dominated on the feet until the ref measures. She is by far my favorite play at the $9k range and she is a -750 on the betting line. I enjoy playing with it safer in money games and I believe she is a safe win this week.
GPP drama of this week — Greg Hardy- $8,600
This is a simple one for me and he will be the chalk of the week. I will continue to be overweight on Merab though. His style is exactly what we want on DraftKings. He’s got a nonstop pace and he shoots takedowns frequently. He has 22 landed takedowns in his initial 3 UFC fights which is his best route to victory in this matchup as well. Despite 2 losses on his record from those 3 fights, he averages more DK points than Katona does with his 2-0 UFC record. This isn’t my GPP play of the week since I know he’s going to win, I only know IF he wins he will score highly, and that he needs to easily reach value on an $8.6k price tag.
Underdog drama of this week — Donald’Cowboy’ Cerrone — $7,800
I have to pick Cowboy as the dog of the week. His struggles are always action packed and the winner of this fight will surely be on the first-place lineup. Especially if it is Cowboy. He almost always scores over 100 points in his wins and he’s 5-rounds to use here. I really don’t see a situation in which he wins and doesn’t end up about the $25k lineup. I’ll be obese on Saturdays this week, but this is an all-in struggle for me. If Cowboy is not in one of my lineups, you then are going to see Iaquinta there. I will be heavier on the Cowboy side though and I believe he gets the work done by entry.
Fade of this week — Elias Theodorou ($8,000)
I would be very surprised to see Theodorou on the 1st location lineup this week. I’d be surprised to see him get even 10x his $8k price tag and that is why I have zero lineups with this week. Not counting his fight with Dan Kelly, his 4 wins earlier that scored 76, 69, 64, and 49. His style is just not good for DraftKings. He will have to knock Brunson out if he’s going to score highly and he is not a power puncher. I believe you are better off carrying Elias by TKO on the gambling line in +870. I really don’t find any reason to spend in him this week in GPPs since he doesn’t possess the ceiling we would like to win that large $25k. I think he’s fine in money games because a 65-point win wouldn’t kill us there. However he is an easy fade of the week for me this Saturday.
Thank you for reading this and good luck this weekend! If You’d like my full-card breakdown where I breakdown each struggle on the card and also provide my entire DraftKings evaluation, in Addition to all my pick predictions, you can find that for just $7.99 at this link below:
(Premium bets are offered at that link too. I’m 71-45 to get +233.79un (+$23,379) since May 19th, 2018 on Premium Plays)
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