Your Guide To The 2019 NCAA Men’s Tournament: Midwest region
Top seed prognosis: On paper, the Midwest seems to be the most open of those four areas, but we still provide No. 1 North Carolina the best chances, using a 35 percent probability of reaching the Final Four and also an 18 percent likelihood of appearing in the championship game. Those chances are 8 percentage points lower than every other No. 1 team in the area, however, and for good reason: North Carolina’s crime depends on turning each play right into a quick break. The Tar Heels fight to get to the free-throw lineup and give up a ton of shots across the perimeter, which, at a slowed-down, half-court matchup, could be rather problematic.
After getting chased by Duke to open the summer, No. 2 Kentucky has caught fire in recent weeks while discovering balance on the two ends of the ground and mostly abstaining in the 3-point line. No. 3 Houston, meanwhile, is in the middle of its very best season since Clyde Drexler and Hakeem Olajuwon were revolutionizing college basketball, and they boast a defense which ranks among the very best together and inside the perimeter.
Sneaky Final Four pick: No. 5 Auburn. When the Tigers steamrolled Tennessee 84-64 in Sunday’s SEC title game, it likely got the focus of a good deal of bracket-pickers. That wasn’t a one off — Auburn also conquer Tennessee eight days earlier, a portion of a series of eight straight wins for the Tigers, and 10 in their last 11 games. Having an explosive offense (No. 8 in KenPom efficacy ) that got more of its points from downtown compared to any other team in the NCAA field, Auburn can heat up in a hurry. We give the Tigers nearly a coin-flip’s likelihood of making the Sweet 16 — and also a very solid 37 percent chance of beating top-seeded North Carolina if the Tar Heels are waiting for Auburn there. The only kryptonite may be a hypothetical regional-final matchup with No. 2 seed Kentucky, which defeat the Tigers from 27 in late February to sweep their season collection.
Don’t bet : No. 4 Kansas. The Jayhawks went to the season ranked No. 1 in the AP’s preseason poll, and they appeared to validate that the option by starting the season 10-0. But a 15-9 record (plus a few critical injuries) since then have cast doubt on Kansas’s NCAA Tournament potential. This is a well-balanced group, but to say it doesn’t shoot well from the exterior is a understatement — watch KU’s 3-for-18 functionality from profound into Saturday’s Big 12 ouster from Iowa State. Insert an unfavorable draw that sets them onto a potential second-round crash course with Auburn (see above), and we give the Jayhawks just an 8 percent chance of making out of the Midwest with their championship hopes undamaged.
Cinderella see: No. 11 Ohio State. If a Big Ten team which has made 11 Final Fours could be a Cinderella, then you’re looking at it in those Buckeyes. (Hey, the committee’s rising tendency to con underwhelming power-conference schools this way really messes with the definition) OSU went only 18-13 during the regular season, was defeated in its second Big Ten tournament game also has nearly two times as many losses as wins because New Year’s. Why are the Buckeyes a potential Cinderella? Regardless of the seed, this remains a dangerous team, one that ranks 27th from Pomeroy’s corrected defensive evaluations and contains celebrity forwards Kaleb Wesson back from suspension. So perhaps they will provide Big 12 champ Iowa State trouble. But this tells you something about the other potential Cinderellas within this area: Seton Hall obtained a very tough first-round matchup with underseeded Wofford; none of the other low seeds are world-beaters. That leaves the Buckeyes, a team that did all it could to play its way out of the championship, but includes some mad potential no matter.
Player to watch: Cameron Johnson, UNC On a team that doesn’t hoist a ton of shots from the perimeter, Johnson is as lethal as they come. Following an injury-riddled campaign where he barely made greater than one third of his appearances from outside the arc, the grad student is canning 46.5 percent of his efforts, which positions inside the top 25 nationwide.
Johnson has flourished in North Carolina’s every-possession-is-a-transition-opportunity scheme this year. He has blossomed into one of the best scorers in the ACC, ranking between the 85th and 100th percentiles in scoring efficiency in transition, off displays and on spot-ups.
Johnson has elevated his game in conference play, boasting the ACC’s top offensive evaluation (132.5) and true shooting percentage (64.6). Unexpectedly, a player who was not seen as a bonded professional now jobs to be a second-round pick.
Likeliest first-round upsets: No. 9 Washington over No. 8 Utah State (49 percent); No. 10 Seton Hall over No. 7 Wofford (37 percent); No. 11 Ohio State over No. 6 Iowa State (33 percent)
Check out our newest March Madness forecasts.
CORRECTION (March 18, 2019, 3:10 p.m.): A previous version of this story misstated the amount of Sweet 16s created by Villanova lately. Although the Wildcats have reached the NCAA Tournament’s”third round” in four of their previous five seasons, that around was the Round of 32 until 2016 because of NCAA naming conventions.
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