BIG MARLEY’S UFC ON ESPN 2 DRAFTKINGS FANTASY BREAKDOWN
This weekend, we have a 13-fight card at Philly on large ESPN. DraftKings has some strong contests and I look forward to chasing the huge GPPs. The main GPP is a $15 buy and $30k goes to 1st place with a total of $500k being paid out. They also have a brand new Qualifier for $175,000. There’ll be 100 qualifiers for that competition and they’ll compete for a $50k first location cost and $175k will be spread out between all 100 admissions that match. I won my first seat into it a few weeks ago and I will try to get my 2nd seat this week if at all possible. Those Qualifier only competitions can be actual bankroll suckers so be careful chasing those overly hard. I will probably stick to the top GPP this week and then throw a small number of entries at that $30 prize, then I will probably take a few shots in the Q. I will also be posting H2Hs as well as picking up H2Hs through the week to get a good amount of play into money games.
With that said, let us get into a few plays I enjoy this week along with my fade of the week:
Money Game play of this week — Main Event Stack, Justin Gaethje AND Edson Barboza
When I stack a fight in money games I need no less than 100 total points. Ideally much more like 150 or more, but I will take 100-point floor with all the guaranteed win. Together with Gaethje fights, we are pretty much locked into that 100+ and we’ve seen his struggles even complete over 200 DK points. He’s the perfect design for accruing DraftKings points and if we use Edson too, then we are guaranteed a win and probably 150+ points. Give me that day. This is how I’ll be starting my money lineup and I will figure out the rest from there. I will take the loss because we do not desire 6 wins in money games. 1st place and 5th place get paid the exact same at a 10-man double-up, so I am not shooting first and I’d rather play with it safer with my cash lineups.
GPP drama of this week — Enrique Barzola — $8,200
This is not a sneaky play whatsoever but Barzola should be a terrific play when he shoots for takedowns. In his 5 UFC wins he’s 36 takedowns. That is precisely what we need on DraftKings. Each takedown is 5-points plus he can stand up enough to score 100+ points. If he can score over 100 DK points here at $8.2k he is for sure going to win a person $30k. I do expect him to be chalky this week, but he has a lot of scoring potential I’d like to fade the chalk. I will probably be in line with the field on ownership with my lineups, if not overweight.
Underdog play of the week — Michelle Waterson — $7,600
I enjoy Waterson here because she is the fighter that will be looking for takedowns in this fight. I believe she can find a number of she may be able to lock up a entry if that’s the case. That is her ceiling in this fight, but I like her more for cash games due to her floor. I don’t see KK finishing Waterson, so I believe we get three complete rounds of scoring from her. In a loss she could put up 30-40 DK points and in money games that is fine. I will use her in GPPs as well, but I don’t think she submits KK. I would guess she puts up around ~80 DK points at a decision win when she’s able to receive the victory.
Fade of this week — Sabina Mazo ($8,800)
I’m spreading my vulnerability out on the majority of the favorites this week at GPPs but Mazo is the one I’m interested in the least. I think the only way she outscores her $8.8k salary is by getting another head kick KO. I don’t think that’s quite probable at all and I feel that a decision win is most likely for her. I don’t see her heading for any takedowns or obtaining many/any knockdowns, therefore I do not see the way she scores tremendously in a decision win. I have zero lineups using Mazo this week and if I was making 100 lineups I would still probably full fade her. Hopefully it does not burn me, but she’s my fade of the week.
Thank you for reading this and good luck this weekend! If You’d like my full-card breakdown where I breakdown every fight about the card and provide my complete DraftKings evaluation, in Addition to all my pick predictions, then you can find that for just $7.99 at this link below:
(Premium stakes are available at that link too. I am 63-41for +210.99 (+$21,099) since May 19th on Premium Plays)
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