The Action Network: Best bets for Daytona
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NASCAR heads to Daytona International Speedway the Coke Zero Sugar 400, for its Freedom Day weekend tradition. Sunday afternoon’s race features the next race run under the new superspeedway rules package.
The first, in Talladega, made fantastic racing very similar to classic restrictor plate races of the past.
I anticipate the exact same for Daytona, in which the draft should play a large part, keeping cars packed closely together. These racing conditions consistently lead to fear of the”Big One” where several automobiles — sometimes numbering in the double digits — have been taken out in one big accident.
The draft along with the prospect of calamity make longshot worth quite relevant at Daytona.
Blow Off practice times when handicapping a superspeedway race — the draft renders practice insignificant. Instead, start looking for motorists who have good superspeedway background and might be undervalued by the market.
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Only one driver can win, but multiple longshots have opportunities at top-three, top-five and top-10 finishes.
Let’s get in the best futures bets for tonight’s Coke Zero Sugar 400.
RICKY STENHOUSE JR. (+2000) TO WIN
William Hill is offering a generous cost on Stenhouse, a two-time superspeedway winner. Stenhouse is an incredibly aggressive driver who enjoys to direct these kinds of races. Stenhouse led twice at Daytona and 3 times at Talladega this year, confirming his drive to be out front.
In 2019, outside of superspeedways, Stenhouse has been strong at the races in which the draft things most — 1.5-mile tracks at night or using low tire wear. Now we are in a race in which the draft plays the ultimate function.
It’s reasonable to bet Stenhouse down to +1500 to win.
ARIC ALMIROLA (+2200) TO WIN
Both of Almirola’s Dragon Power NASCAR Cup Series wins arrived at superspeedways. He even won the 2014 variant of this race, and was leading the past year’s Daytona 500 coming to the checkered flag before contact with Austin Dillon.
Almirola has not had quite the time he had a year ago, completing in a worse position in nine of his 17 races, while currently residing 11th in the point standings.
However, Almirola led 27 laps at Talladega but completed only ninth because the Chevrolet team plan placed its automobiles in a much better position to dominate the close of the race.
I’d bet him down to +1600.
ERIK JONES (+3000) TO WIN
Jones currently sits out of the playoff picture in 17th in the point standings. I think his subpar performance is driving his long odds at MGM properties.
But, Jones is an excellent superspeedway racer with a win-or-go-home record in these types of races. He has either crashed out or completed within the top nine in each superspeedway race of the Cup career except one.
Not merely are his playoff hopes on the line, but his potential in Joe Gibbs Racing is in doubt. This race might just be the antidote Jones requires in a year of uncertainty and struggle.
There’s worth here down to +2500.
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